We (Won't) Work?

Know your exit odds BEFORE you invest.

Right before WeWork's recent fiasco, AMOS simulated the likelihood of a meaningful exit (IPO or acquisition) for #WeWork.

In this case, we know at least one investor exited WeWork with an insane amount of money (#AdamNeumann).

But, for investors getting in at later stages (anything beyond Series C), the likelihood of meaningful return via exit was considerably slim -- especially for the level of hype WeWork received publicly.

Per AMOS, later stage investors (read: #SoftBank et al) had less than a 10% chance of getting a meaningful ROI on their WeWork investment when they jumped in the game.

AMOS also said WeWork's Fail Likelihood is close to 70%.

Later stage investors in WeWork had a slim chance of achieving a meaningful exit.

The AMOS Demo

Here is AMOS in action.

So, How Does AMOS Work?

AMOS makes it very easy to get an exit likelihood for your startup. There are only 4 steps.

1) Enter Info

• Give some basic information about your startup

2) AMOS Compares

• AMOS then compares your startup to similar, historical companies from its database of nearly 100,000 startups.

3) AMOS Simulates

• AMOS then simulates 1,000 possible scenarios for your startup based on the outcomes it pulled for comparable companies.

4) AMOS Gives Your Exit Odds

• Discover how likely your startup is to exit in real-time and lever to strategize your next moves!

Want to know the exit odds for your startup? Contact us today.

Cringe-worthy Quotes from Your Industry Leaders

If you don’t think there are inefficiencies in the startup and venture capital spaces today, then I invite you to think again.

Read the above quotes from notable and prominent investors.

Also consider that to make the top 100 deals of 2018, a startup would need to have raised a nine-figure round.

Why Investors Use AMOS

New venture capital and angel funds are forming quickly and easily. Veteran VC firms now face newfound competition for deal flow.

In order to remain competitive, some of these very large, seasoned funds will often inflate the valuation of a startup they really like to prevent smaller, emerging funds from competing for investment.

When this happens, there are negative, downstream effects that impact funds and startups of all sizes.

For example… Let’s say that Mega Fund has $1B to invest and Emerging Fund has $50M to invest.

• Both Mega Fund and Emerging Fund like ABC Corp and want to invest in ABC Corp.

• Mega Fund can commit capital to ABC Corp at a premium valuation and not deplete their $1B whereas Emerging Fund doesn’t have that luxury.

• So instead of a deal at ABC Corp’s $10M valuation, Mega Fund can structure terms where ABC Corp is valued at $35M making it harder for Emerging Fund to compete.

• Additionally, Mega Fund can put up more capital on a $35M valuation, negotiate a larger stake and keep other investors like Emerging Fund off the cap table.

• Emerging Fund loses out on the ABC Corp deal to Mega Fund, but Emerging Fund still likes the space where ABC Corp competes.

• Six months later, a comparable company to ABC Corp called XYZ Corp raises money.

• XYZ Corp is worth roughly $15M; but, since ABC got terms on a 3.5x valuation six months earlier, XYZ can demand a premium on their company at a valuation of $40M.

• The inflated values of ABC and XYZ hurt Emerging Fund’s return potential as a result.

Larger valuation DOES NOT EQUAL better startup.

And, the larger deals get, the harder it is to spot value.

Funds of all types — especially smaller, emerging funds — benefit from AMOS because AMOS provides objectivity and neutrality to startups’ exit likelihood, not valuation.

AMOS does not consider whether a company is over-valued or under-valued; it only considers how likely a company is to exit (See the AMOS report on Bird as an example).

AMOS brings neutrality to startups’ exit likelihood which is beneficial for investors and funds of all sizes.

The Math Behind AMOS

What are some of the characteristics that make AMOS unique?

Among many unique features, AMOS levers:

• Database of nearly 100,000 startups across many sectors and industries

• 10+ years’ worth of startup data

• Multiple factors that historically and statistically show how likely a startup is to exit; simulates 1,000 potential scenarios based on those factors

• Complex mathematical formulas used in various industries to forecast outcomes with a high-degree of accuracy

• Analyzes moving trends from 3 years up to 10+ years

AMOS Said Bird Was Over-hyped

Bird — the electric scooter startup based in Northern California — was put through AMOS in early 2019.

The results weren't promising.

AMOS said Bird’s exit likelihood was less than 8%.

For a later stage company, those odds are quite low.

Would any of the investors who poured $415M into the Bird wished they had checked AMOS first before cutting a check?

Invest + Innovate Wisely.

LINK to story —> Here