Know your exit odds BEFORE you invest.

Right before WeWork's recent fiasco, AMOS simulated the likelihood of a meaningful exit (IPO or acquisition) for #WeWork.

In this case, we know at least one investor exited WeWork with an insane amount of money (#AdamNeumann).

But, for investors getting in at later stages (anything beyond Series C), the likelihood of meaningful return via exit was considerably slim -- especially for the level of hype WeWork received publicly.

Per AMOS, later stage investors (read: #SoftBank et al) had less than a 10% chance of getting a meaningful ROI on their WeWork investment when they jumped in the game.

AMOS also said WeWork's Fail Likelihood is close to 70%.