Crunchbase recently published that 9 companies reached “Unicorn Status” in July 2020.

Unicorn Status means a startup is valued at $1 Billion or greater.

Unicorn Status doesn’t tell you anything about the Exit Probability of the investment / startup — a lot of times, Unicorn Status reflects the level of hype that savvy VC Marketers have put behind one of its investments.

Remitly, for example, was one of the 9 that reached Unicorn Status last month, but, according to Crunchbase, Remitly has raised over $500 Million in funding since inception.

Is there real value here with Remitly? Or is this another hype train with a high likelihood of screwing over LPs and VCs?

AMOS ran the numbers on Remitly on August 10, 2020.

Remitly has about a 9% chance of Exiting.

Do those seem like “magical unicorn” odds to you?

Here is a visual representation of how the 1,000 simulated scenarios played out for Remitly.