First, if you’re reading this, then I recognize that you’re in a unique, irresolute situation.

You are either a founder, an investor or startup enthusiast with three characteristics:

1. You love big ideas

2. You are sick of the status quo

3. You know that a better way must exist

And you’re facing an inner-dilemma: do I chase (or fund) my startup dream? Or, do I play it safe and let someone else take the crazy risk?

Business media personalities and “influencers” will tell you not to play it safe; to follow your gut, go all-in, don’t be boring, be daring and change the world.

These people also don’t know you or your situation and get paid for likes on their posts or ratings on their shows.

But, in reality, you should be asking yourself a different question: What am I in for if I take the plunge?

I’ve seen way too many smart, talented and well-intentioned people — of all ages and across all industries — get burned very badly in the startup game by simply not knowing what they were getting into before they launched or invested in a company.

Before you go all-in, you deserve to know the assigned value to your startup risk.

AMOS gives investors and founders this value, called “Exit Likelihood” — a probability that your startup gets acquired or goes public at favorable investment terms. The AMOS score is generated by using historically and statistically proven algorithms and simulations.

How AMOS came to life: I vividly remember two moments that jaded me as a Venture Capitalist (VC).

#1 - THE BUILD-UP.

A few years ago, I was a judge at a pitch competition on the West Coast. I met founders with solid businesses and financial statements. I met founders who were in over their heads. I met media members and retirees with an affinity for tech and enterprise.

There were 3 keynote speakers at the event. All 3 were founders of household-name startups. All 3 had net worth’s of at least 9-figures. All 3 were 35 or younger.

And, all 3 had an entirely different attitude.

• Founder_1 was full of himself. He boasted of his own platform and capabilities, but he had never turned a profit and made one wildly ignorant remark after another. He talked about how he was the best startup to come through a prestigious incubator. It was obvious that he got lucky but didn’t have the self-awareness to admit it. I think he was hungover.

• Founder_2 knew he got lucky and was perhaps a little too honest with his self-awareness. “I was basically a stoner who played a lot of video games when I randomly pitched an idea I had and got into a good incubator program.”

• Founder_3 had just sold his early stage company to a Fortune 500 firm. He was uncomfortable on stage and fighting “Impostor Syndrome” in real-time. He deferred almost every question to Founders 1 & 2.

I became anxious, then annoyed, then agitated as these three founders spoke. I stood up from my chair and quietly worked my way to the back wall. Was I missing something? I wanted to see the big picture. I wanted to see how people were reacting to these 3 guest speakers.

I looked out into the crowd and I saw… you.

I saw you — the reader.

I saw you — undergrads in your 20s and Snowbirds in your 70s.

I saw you — the founders, the financiers and the faithful.

I saw you — married couples who were bootstrapping your business on credit cards and sweat equity.

And, every one of you was hanging on to every piece of bad advice from these 3 “successful” founders. You were typing notes and taking photos on your smart phone. You fixated on every non-helpful word from this panel.

And, you broke my heart.

You are people who took early penalties on your 401k’s to chase a dream. You are people who spent decades in an industry that you now want to change.

And, you were getting terrible advice from 3 founders who simply got lucky.

By secular standards, yes, these 3 were all successful. They could have retired that day and their great-grandkids would never have to work.

But, you deserve better, I thought, to know what you’re getting into, regardless of which side of the table you’re on, and how much luck versus skill will need to play out for you to strike it big.

My wife texted me while I was standing, observing in the back of the ballroom.

“How’s the event?” she asked.

“I think something is wrong here,” I replied.

And, for weeks, I could not stop thinking about you.

#2 - OFFICIALLY JADED & OVER IT

On a warm, spring day only a few weeks later, I had just finished Day 2 of a 3-day pitch event in downtown Chicago.

“Come see the best startups in America,” said the advertisements.

Except, they weren’t the best startups in America.

The Day 1 pitches were underwhelming. The Day 2 quality of startups was even worse than Day 1.

More upsetting, though, was looking over the audience and seeing retirees gushing over (and ready to write checks to) a 23-year old, community college drop out in a V-neck and jeans talking about a revolutionary healthcare app that wasn’t built yet and had no validity from a health insurer.

This Chicago showcase was no different from the one in Los Angeles.  Or the one in New York.  Or the one in Scottsdale. It was just a gathering of many over-hyped startups with no idea of value proposition and investors who couldn’t spot value.

I bailed with a full day of pitches to go and took the last flight out of O’Hare that night. 

The whole flight home, I vigorously scoured decks, looking for some type of objectivity to the venture investment game. 

I poured over outside industry reports looking for somebody who could explain the phenomena known as the bloated startup industry. 

I devoured the data sets I had just received as an attendee, looking for any quantitative pattern or neutrality within startup investments. 

I couldn’t find anything.

So, I figured it was up to me to discover and build what I wished existed.

AMOS TODAY

Over the next 3 years and countless hours of moonlighting, I found a signal within the noise to properly inform investments.

After I left my fund in 2018, I built, tested, launched Intellectual Property that puts neutrality and objectivity into the startup game.

I called it “AMOS Venture Capital Analytics.” AMOS calculates and assigns a risk score or “Exit Likelihood” to your startup.

In July 2020, we validated AMOS with remarkable results from our first longitudinal study.

You’ve worked so hard to get where you are. You have dreams to chase, differences to make and legacies to leave. I want you to know what you’re in for before you take the risk. I want you to be successful. I don’t want you to be surprised.

I want you to invest and innovate wisely.