Michael Gervais — a high-performance psychologist and co-founder of Compete to Create — spoke about the difference between What is Possible vs. What is Probable on an episode of Armchair Expert (link).

In every pitch I’ve ever witnessed, the founder has always pitched on what’s possible with his/her company or idea. It is important and appropriate for a founder to do this by discussing:

• The Total Addressable Market (TAM);

• The upside of his/her industry; and

• How his/her solution will impact its respective market.

But, I have rarely heard a founder talk about what is probable during a pitch.

In the venture space, an accurate measure of the likelihood of various outcomes — or what’s probable — is crucial.

It is on the investor to accurately evaluate what is probable for each opportunity in the deal flow; this is really hard to get right.

AMOS is designed to give investors and founders an objective probability of exit based on several factors, including:

• Comparable Companies

• Historical Data

• Industry

• Performance

• Cash Management

• Etc.

To find out how likely an exit is for your startup, contact us here.

Also, give Gervais a listen — he is excellent!