A goal for AMOS is to provide directional, quantitative data on how likely your startup is to exit.

It is very easy to find qualitative reasons for why a startup succeeds or fails. A quick Google search for “why startups fail” will return thousands upon thousands of “Top #XX Reasons Why” lists.

The search may return some quantitative results; example: 90% of startups fail, but there are three problems with that:

1. It broadly blankets and doesn’t consider industry

2. It doesn’t define “fail”

3. The data is probably outdated

Here is how AMOS addresses problems with the quantitative data out there on startup success rates.

1. Broadly Blankets

Let’s say that Frank the Founder is considering launching a Media startup. He searches “why startups fail” and sees a publication that says 80% of startups fail.

Frank is encouraged and believes he can beat the odds. What Frank doesn’t realize is that article he read did not speak to his industry specifically; rather, it broadly blanketed ALL startups.

AMOS tells us that over the last 10+ years, Media startups have a lower than average success rate in terms of exit.

Frank’s odds of success are therefore much lower than what he realizes and Frank has been misguided as he launches his business.

2. Define “Fail”

Qualitative data doesn’t have a clear definition on “fail.”

For example, a Mom & Pop Shop might be content to start a business that allows them to work for themselves, provide for a family and send their kids to college. Mom & Pop perhaps don’t really care about exiting or growing their business much (see Zombie).

To a VC, an investment in Mom & Pop Shop is a fail, but to the owners, their business has provided their way of life and is not considered a fail.

3. Outdated Data

Startup dynamics change every year. For example, 2019 was a great year to launch a startup, but 2020 has not been a great year to launch a startup due to coronavirus.

Long lists as to “why startups fail” don’t always consider PESTE risk variables (Political, Economical, Social, Technological and Environmental).